youUnderstanding the politics of Northern Ireland is not easy. The bizarre internal maneuvering and machinations of the Democratic Unionist Party can make Conservative Party conspiracies as tame as a Sunday school picnic.

The DUP staged a bizarre political move this week by announcing that the party’s agriculture minister, Edwin Poots, would end controls on goods from Britain to Northern Ireland.

Simultaneously, DUP Prime Minister Paul Givan resigned in protest at the UK government’s failure to end legal controls agreed with the EU.

What is the DUP doing? To what extent has it spoiled the Northern Ireland Protocol arrangements forged in the Brexit deal? Could the latest events trigger a trade war between the UK and the EU?

It is difficult to say exactly how London and Brussels will react in the coming days, as we do not yet know how the drastic decision of the DUP will play out.

But we know the party’s actions have upped the ante, as British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and her European Commission counterpart Maros Sefcovic grapple with a possible compromise agreement on the protocol, which would loosen the rules. about the controls.

Officials continued to carry out agri-food checks over the weekend amid legal uncertainty, while Poots’ order for border officials to stop checks is being challenged in court.

It is unclear if the checks will stop next week or if the order will remain stuck in legal limbo for many weeks. Trade bodies are advising businesses to carry on as usual, for now.

Sinn Fein, not without reason, described the DUP’s actions as “tricks” aimed solely at improving the party’s chances in the upcoming elections in May. But the radical election campaign has real intense and potentially catastrophic consequences.

Republic of Ireland Foreign Secretary Simon Coveney said ending the checks required by the protocol would be a “breach of international law” and breach the terms of the Brexit deal.

Senior EU officials are keeping calm for now, but they are unimpressed that Truss and other ministers are refusing to condemn the DUP or otherwise get involved, as the British government claims the disorder is an “executive matter” in Belfast. .

Sefcovic said the UK government bears “responsibility” for the controls agreed to in the protocol, and cannot blame the naughty kids who run the show in Northern Ireland for failing to meet those obligations.

But Ms Truss and Team UK will try to argue that the facts on the ground show exactly why the EU needs to give in and loosen controls.

The EU is unlikely to see ending agri-food controls as tantamount to triggering Article 16, the means by which Downing Street has threatened to suspend parts of the protocol, by default.

But ending the controls would put considerable pressure on the UK to quickly agree to a deal with the EU. And in the absence of an agreed compromise between London and Brussels, the DUP’s incendiary decision could light the fuse of the dispute, hastening the breakdown of talks and pushing Boris Johnson’s government to activate Article 16.

This brings us into trade war territory, in which the EU takes a series of retaliatory measures for the suspension of protocol agreements.

It has been said previously that the bosses in Brussels have a ‘nuclear’ option to end the Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), forcing the UK to trade with the EU on the Organization’s world trade terms. , essentially a “no deal” Brexit scenario. .

But experts in Brussels think they are more likely to consider fighting back through a lesser-known part of the TCA: Section 506. The measures could range from stopping fishing in EU waters to tariffs on UK fish. entering the EU and then moving on. to the rates. on other assets.

Alternatively, the two sides could see the meaning and reach an agreement that would relieve much of the red tape on agri-food products through an agreed list of certain products that would still require tighter controls.

Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Center for European Reform, said there is another scenario where the whole rotten mess rumbles over and over again, one where the UK “continues to engage in non-low level compliance” while “negotiations begin.” . , stop and start again”.

What about Mr. Johnson? What do you want to do now? It’s hard to say whether the embattled prime minister, struggling to stave off a Conservative rebellion against Partygate, has given much thought to the issue in recent days.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the DUP (yes, there is actually someone in charge), claimed that Johnson had told him privately that there was only a ’20-30 per cent chance’ of negotiating a new MoU with the EU. In the next weeks.

Do what you want with it. Johnson makes a lot of promises that mean very little. So hopefully there are still enough adults left to fix the problem. For a while, at least.