Euro zone bond yields rose on Thursday after economic data showed European economies struggled in November, but less than expected.
The yield on the 10-year German bond, the bloc’s reference, rose 3 basis points (bp), to 2.593%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Business activity in the euro zone contracted in November, according to Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey data released on Thursday, although the numbers were slightly less bad than economists expected.
Data from Britain was more positive, with businesses reporting a marginal return to growth in November after three months of contraction.
“I think it’s mainly the better-than-expected PMIs in Europe and the UK this morning that are driving yields higher,” said Imogen Bachra, head of non-dollar rates strategy at Natwest Markets.
The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose 7 basis points to 4.39%. The yield on the 10-year French bond rose 6 basis points to 3.19%.
UK bonds were hardest hit, with the 10-year yield rising 9 basis points to 4.25%. US markets were closed for Thanksgiving.
PMI data from Germany showed the euro zone’s largest economy performed better than expected in November, although activity contracted further.
“Judging by the PMI data, the risks to our near-term forecast for economic activity in the eurozone and the United Kingdom are less significant than before,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg in London.
European and US bond yields have fallen in recent weeks, after hitting multi-year highs in October. The data suggests growth and inflation are slowing, making further interest rate hikes from the central bank unlikely in investors’ eyes.
Germany’s 10-year yield, for example, has fallen from a 12-year high of 3.024% in early October. Italy’s is down from 5.025% last month, an 11-year high.
The yield on two-year German bonds, sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 3.05%. It fell from its 15-year high of 3.393% in July.
The head of the European Central Bank and the German central bank, Joachim Nagel, said on Wednesday that economic data would determine whether interest rates should rise again. ECB official Isabel Schnabel will speak on Thursday evening.
The ECB ended a streak of 10 consecutive increases in October, leaving interest rates at a record low of 4%.
Eurozone inflation is falling as expected, if not a little faster, but the ECB must maintain the possibility of interest rate increases, authorities agreed last month, according to minutes of its meetings on the 25th and 26th. October.
On Thursday, traders estimated that the ECB would cut rates by almost 90 basis points by December 2024, depending on prices in derivatives markets.
But financial markets are too optimistic about rate cuts and such favorable prices actually increase the risk that another hike will be necessary, Pierre Wunsch, a Belgian monetary policy official, told a German newspaper. (Reporting by Harry Robertson; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise, Kirsten Donovan)
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