PPolitically, the issue of Brexit seems increasingly clear in the United Kingdom, where a clear majority of Britons now believe that leaving the European Union (EU) was a failure. About 60% of them think that the decision “It was a mistake” ; Only 10% believe that Brexit is going well ” for now “and only 30% believe it will be positive ” long-term “.
In these circumstances, all the country’s ills end up being attributed to him: skyrocketing inflation, collapsing schools, lengthening hospital waiting lists, stagnation of the economy, political instability… But is this really the case?
1Ahem In September, the Office for National Statistics, the British equivalent of INSEE, published a major statistical review. This covers the years 2020 and 2021, during the pandemic. It concluded that the British economy was significantly stronger than initially estimated. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the gross domestic product (GDP) was finally 0.6% above its level in the fourth quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, instead of being 1.2% below, as calculated previously. Suddenly, with almost two points of GDP recovered, the UK doesn’t seem so bad.
If this new calculation is correct, and if the statistics for 2022 and 2023 do not change completely, this will mean that the economy is now 1.5% above its pre-pandemic level. It is similar to France, significantly better than Germany (0%), but worse than Italy (2.1%), Japan (3.5%), Canada (3.5%) or the United States (6.1%). Obviously, the British government is ecstatic. “These figures show that we have recovered better than many other G7 economies”, praises Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer. So Brexit would have had no impact?
The waltz of numbers
To try to see clearly, we must understand the reason for the revision of the statistics. First of all, reminds John Springford, an economist at the Center for European Reform think tank, this is a second review: “The previous one, a year before, had been a downward correction of 1.7 points of GDP. Ultimately, this new estimate only nullifies this first revision. » In addition, he warns, most other statistical institutes in the world are also working on a revision of their figures for the pandemic period, which risks causing new changes in international comparisons.
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