“We can finally put Brexit behind us.” European and British leaders showed their relief on Thursday, December 24. London and Brussels have finally reached an agreement on their future trade relations, announced Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission. An outcome that avoids the dreaded “no deal” at the end of the transition period that will end on the night of December 31, one year after the official departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

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Elvire Fabry, a researcher in charge of trade policy and Brexit at the Jacques Delors Institute, deciphers this agreement for franceinfo.

Franceinfo: How do we reach an agreement after ten months of negotiations?

Elvire Fabry: The negotiations that have been initiated concern many more issues than simply avoiding the refund of tariffs and customs quotas. It is a feat to have managed to negotiate this agreement in such a short time, when trade agreements, as a general rule, can take several years. We will have to wait to see what is actually in this deal, as it is almost 2,000 pages long.

It appears that several chapters have advanced in recent days, enough to provide a solid foundation for negotiations. The most important disputes remained until the end, in particular those relating to the conditions of fair competition, the establishment of a dispute settlement mechanism and the question of fisheries.

The negotiators seemed very happy at the end of these negotiations. What is it really? Is there a winner and a loser with this deal?

As both parties were the losers, through this agreement, both parties are now the winners. In case of “No deal”We started with friction and a lack of maximum visibility on all issues. We were throwing all economic players and all citizens who have a link to the UK into the unknown. As a first step, this agreement provides a framework for future cooperation, which is very important, and avoids the dark scenario of “No deal”.

We take care of the most urgent. Much has been said about avoiding the return of tariffs and fees, etc. But there were many pending problems such as data transfer. Were they successful in doing anything in terms of services? In the fight against terrorism? In any case, this agreement will create a stronger spirit of cooperation than if we had stayed in a scenario of “No deal”, which would have further deteriorated what little remained of mutual trust.

What are the next steps in the next few days?

First, the 27 member states must vote for the agreement, but there will be no exceptional meeting of heads of state and government in the next four days, so it will be done by legal mail. This validation of the agreement by the City Council must be obtained before December 31. But the legal preparation of an agreement is a process that usually takes a long time. Therefore, there is a gray area in the text that will be validated by 27.

The question also arises from the British side, since Boris Johnson had withdrawn the competence to discuss negotiations with his MPs. However, the latter has yet to validate the text. So what visibility will they have? The text is very long and once again the legal review will not be completed …

On the British side, it is therefore necessary for the House of Commons and the House of Lords to vote on this text, then the Queen validates it. If so, the text will enter into provisional application as of January 1, 2021. Then, it will be the turn of MEPs to approve it in early 2021.