Scientists from several Belgian universities predict a further decline in the European bumblebee population. According to a study published in a scientific journal Nature A large proportion of non-threatened European bumblebee species will lose 30 percent of their suitable habitats between 2061 and 2080. The study was carried out by scientists from VUB, ULB, UMons, UCL and KU Leuven.
The study predicts that between 32 and 76 percent of non-threatened European bumblebee species will lose almost a third of their suitable habitat between 2061 and 2080, compared to the period 2000-2014. Historical data from several observation periods between 1901 and 1970 were used.
“From 400,000 observations, we analyzed where bumblebees are still found in sufficiently large populations,” says co-author and VUB climate scientist Wim Thiery. “Based on that data, we have defined an ideal biotope for each of the bumblebee species using artificial intelligence.”
It turns out that today the most suitable biotopes are in the Alps, Benelux, Germany, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Poland. Warmer areas, especially in southern Europe, appear to be less suitable.
A sharp decline could also be observed between the periods 1901-1970 and 2000-2014. “But things could go from bad to worse.”
(Read more below the preview)
To reinforce the future prediction, several possible future scenarios were used, based on the degree of climate change, land use, dependence on fossil fuels, deforestation and intensive agriculture. “In the most pessimistic scenario, we see that the possible survival zones for bumblebees will be limited to a few places, mainly in Scandinavia and the Alps.”
‘In that scenario, the Benelux will become a battlefield. In the most optimistic scenario, with the immediate cessation of the burning of fossil fuels and the cessation of deforestation, we could still avoid the end of bumblebees in central Europe,” warns Thierry.
‘Wild bees and bumblebees are extremely important for the pollination of wild plants but also food crops. “Habitat degradation and climate change are the main causes of the global collapse of wildlife populations, and there is increasing evidence that the erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the coming decades,” the authors said in the study.
They conclude that new conservation measures must go hand in hand with strong global policies aimed at limiting human impact on these crucial pollinators. At the same time, much stricter standards are needed for landscape management at national and continental scales.
But above all, according to scientists, this demonstrates the urgent need to eliminate the burning of fossil fuels as soon as possible. “This will only be possible if we all decide to respect the conditions of the Paris climate agreement and if we really do so,” concludes Thiery.
“Friendly travel trailblazer. Certified gamer. Evil bacon practitioner. Analyst. Problem solver.”
