Speculation about an early deal in the Brexit dispute over Northern Ireland

There is movement in the Brexit dispute between Britain and the EU. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may soon announce a deal.

In the scramble to reach a deal between London and Brussels on Brexit rules for the British province of Northern Ireland, there are increasing signs of an imminent breakthrough. Britain’s PA news agency reported Friday that lawmakers from Britain’s ruling Conservative Party have been instructed to go to Parliament next Monday. This was taken as a sign that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak might announce a deal with the EU. However, it was not clear whether parliamentarians would have a chance to vote on a deal.

Sunak is expected to hold talks with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before a breakthrough in negotiations. That could happen over the weekend, PA speculated. Crucial to success is likely to be whether Sunak is able to get Northern Ireland’s largest Protestant unionist party, the DUP, to back him. In protest against the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, they have been blocking the formation of a government in the British part of the country for months.

Difficulties in British internal trade

The Northern Ireland Protocol is part of the Brexit Treaty. It was negotiated by then Prime Minister Boris Johnson against the will of the DUP and allowed for an orderly exit from the EU. In the parliamentary elections scheduled soon after, Johnson won a solid majority.

The protocol establishes that the customs border between the United Kingdom and the EU passes through the Irish Sea. This was to prevent border controls being introduced between British Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, a member of the EU.

Otherwise, it was expected that the conflict over the unification of the two parts of Ireland would break out again. But the controls have also created difficulties for intra-British trade, and Protestant supporters of the Union feel isolated from Britain.

Hayden Sherman

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